Political analyst Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia, estimated that Bersatu could lose 10 to 12 Malay-majority parliamentary seats, which would shift to PAS.
She said the 15th general election (GE15) in November 2022 clearly showed that PAS was the backbone of PN’s grassroots support and election machinery.
“If PN breaks up, Bersatu will be the one that suffers,” she told FMT.
In GE15, Bersatu won seven seats in Kelantan and Terengganu, contesting on a PAS ticket instead of the PN logo to ride on the Islamic party’s popularity in the east coast.
The seats it won were Jeli, Gua Musang, Machang, Tanah Merah and Ketereh in Kelantan, and Hulu Terengganu.
Bersatu also contested under the PAS banner in the August 2023 state elections in Kelantan and Terengganu, as PN made an almost clean sweep of all seats.
PAS’s other strongholds are Kedah and Perlis, where it currently holds the lion’s share of parliamentary seats in both states with 11 to Bersatu’s six.
PAS as a kingmaker
Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said Bersatu faced a huge risk because at least seven of their seats were contested on a PAS ticket.
“Without the Islamic party’s iconic ‘moon’ logo, voters would easily return to PAS,” he said.
Bersatu’s performance in several by-elections over the past three years has been lacklustre and reflected dismal grassroots support, he said.
During some of these, such as the Mahkota and Nenggiri polls, PAS is said to have not gone all out on the campaign trail.
Syaza and Zaharuddin said history had shown that PAS was more than capable of retaining support despite contesting in an election on its own.
Syaza cited the outcome of the 2018 general election (GE14), when PAS contested against Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional and won 18 federal seats despite predictions it would be wiped out.
Zaharuddin pointed to the 1959 and 1969 general elections when the Islamic party wrested control of the Kelantan and Terengganu state governments without any political allies.
“Given PAS’s grassroots strength and track record, PAS could even become a kingmaker when it comes to forming the federal government,” he said.
Yesterday, PAS spiritual leader Hashim Jasin suggested that the party go solo in GE16 if the deadlock over the new PN chairman continues to persist.
PAS had laid claim to the PN chairmanship after Muhyiddin Yassin stepped down on Jan 1, but its president, Abdul Hadi Awang, has ruled out taking over due to health reasons. Muhyiddin contends that his successor should be a party president, but PAS disagreed.
Tensions between both parties came to a head after Muhyiddin claimed PAS and Bersatu agreed to abolish the PN chairman’s post at a meeting more than a week ago but PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man countered with a statement saying the matter was not even discussed at the Jan 16 meeting.